- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 16°C or below on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on September 2?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on September 2?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on September 2?19¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on September 2?46¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on September 2?23¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on September 2?5¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent official forecasts and model consensus point to a maximum temperature of 22–24°C in Mexico City on September 2, 2026, amid widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate rainfall typical of the peak rainy season. National Meteorological Service outlooks and numerical models (including runs showing peaks near 22°C midday) reflect suppressed insolation from persistent moisture and convective activity, keeping daytime highs close to or slightly above seasonal averages around 23°C. This scientific context—driven by regional atmospheric instability and orographic influences from surrounding terrain—explains why traders have concentrated implied probability on 24°C (46.5%), followed by 25°C and 23°C. Updated model guidance closer to resolution could shift outcomes if clearer skies allow brief warming.