- 2027년 이전에 중국과 대만의 군사 충돌이 있을까요?8¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Traders assign a 92.2% probability to no direct China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 because Beijing continues prioritizing gray-zone coercion over kinetic operations. In 2026, PLA aircraft incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ dropped significantly from prior peaks, with activity shifting toward coast guard “law enforcement” patrols and naval presence around the island, including east of Taiwan. Large-scale PLA exercises, such as Justice Mission-2025, occurred in late 2025, but 2026 has featured more measured joint readiness patrols rather than preparations for imminent invasion. Chinese leadership purges have disrupted senior command structures needed for complex amphibious campaigns, while U.S.-China summits (including May 2026) and an upcoming September meeting maintain diplomatic channels. Taiwan has responded with intensified Han Kuang and combat-readiness drills, yet no verified indicators point to an imminent full-scale clash within the remaining months of 2026. This pattern of calibrated pressure, combined with internal and diplomatic constraints on escalation, underpins the market’s strong consensus against near-term conflict.