- CMIは2026年12月31日までにミレニアム懸賞問題が解決されたと宣言しますか？27¢
- CMIは2027年12月31日までにミレニアム懸賞問題が解決されたと宣言しますか？34¢
- CMIは2028年12月31日までにミレニアム懸賞問題の解決を宣言しますか？38¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI. A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.
Trader sentiment around any potential CMI declaration on a remaining Millennium Prize Problem reflects the absence of verified resolutions since Poincaré in 2010, despite scattered 2025–2026 claims involving AI, quantum methods, and unified axiomatic papers posted to Zenodo. The Clay Mathematics Institute continues to list six problems as open, with no accepted proofs meeting its rigorous criteria for the $1 million awards. Recent activity includes a 2025–2026 Harvard lecture series on the problems and ongoing research into Navier-Stokes and Yang-Mills, yet community consensus holds that formal acceptance remains distant. Upcoming catalysts are limited to potential peer-reviewed submissions or CMI announcements, underscoring how high evidentiary thresholds keep implied probabilities low for near-term declarations.