- アンソロピックは2026年9月末に最高のAIモデルを持っているでしょうか？100¢100%
- 2026年9月末にOpenAIが最も優れたAIモデルを持つことになりますか？0¢0%
- 2026年9月末にMetaは最高のAIモデルを持つことになりますか？0¢0%
- 2026年9月末にGoogleは最良のAIモデルを持っているでしょうか？0¢0%
- 2026年9月末にSpaceXAIが最高のAIモデルを持つことになりますか？0¢0%
- DeepSeekは2026年9月末に最高のAIモデルを持つことになりますか？0¢0%
- 2026年9月末にアリババが最高のAIモデルを持つことになるでしょうか？0¢0%
- 2026年9月末にZ.aiが最高のAIモデルを持つことになりますか？0¢0%
- 2026年9月末にはByteDanceが最高のAIモデルを持つことになりますか？0¢0%
- 2026年9月末にムーンショットが最高のAIモデルになりますか？0¢0%
- 2026年9月末にテンセントは最高のAIモデルを持っているでしょうか？0¢0%
- 2026年9月末にバイドゥが最良のAIモデルを持つことになりますか？0¢0%
Anthropic's recent frontier releases, including Claude Opus 5.5 and Fable 5.1, have driven overwhelming trader consensus by topping major benchmarks in coding, agentic tasks, and overall intelligence as of late September 2026. These large language models demonstrate clear leads on leaderboards like BenchLM and Artificial Analysis, outpacing competitors through superior performance in complex workflows and knowledge work. Multiple Anthropic variants occupy top leaderboard positions, reinforcing market-implied odds near 100%. Realistic challenges include OpenAI's GPT-6.1 Sol or Google's latest Gemini updates rapidly closing gaps on fresh evaluations, or unexpected capability jumps from other labs that could shift benchmark dominance before month-end resolution.
ルール
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".