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This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that falls within a tornado probability area rated ≥2% in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook on September 6, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook assigns tornado probability percentages (2%, 5%, 10%, etc.) to geographic areas across the US. If a city's coordinates fall inside any area rated 2% or higher, that city resolves "Yes". If a city is outside all tornado probability areas, or only within areas rated below 2%, that city resolves "No". The SPC outlook is published as machine-readable geographic data (GeoJSON) at spc.noaa.gov. Each city's coordinates and the polygon boundaries are publicly verifiable. Borderline cases can be independently confirmed using the polygon data (excluding the hatched SIGN overlay, which is not a probability rating) and the city's listed coordinates. The point-in-polygon test is performed on unprojected WGS84 (EPSG:4326) coordinates, which is the native coordinate system of the SPC GeoJSON data. Resolution is based on the scheduled 01:00 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook update issued on the following UTC calendar day. The SPC Day 1 outlook covers a 24-hour period from 12:00 UTC to 12:00 UTC the following day. Subsequent revisions published after that scheduled update will not be considered. If the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook has not been published by the time the market closes, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the NOAA Storm Prediction Center at spc.noaa.gov.
The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center's September 6, 2026, Day 1 convective outlooks highlighted a slight risk of severe thunderstorms focused on damaging winds across the southern Appalachians and Savannah River Valley, plus large hail in western and central Montana, with no tornado risk areas delineated in probabilistic graphics. A moist, unstable airmass and moderate shear supported isolated supercells, but limited low-level rotation and instability profiles kept tornado probabilities minimal outside localized radar-detected rotation in western North Dakota. Post-event confirmation of any touchdowns, along with final NWS surveys and SPC storm reports, will determine market resolution for affected cities.