- Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31?90¢
- Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 900m and 920m by August 31?10¢
- Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 920m and 940m by August 31?<1¢
- Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 960m by August 31?<1¢
- Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 960m and 980m by August 31?<1¢
- Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 980m and 1000m by August 31?<1¢
- Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 1000m and 1020m by August 31?<1¢
- Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 1020m and 1040m by August 31?<1¢
- Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 1040m and 1060m by August 31?<1¢
- Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 1060m and 1080m by August 31?<1¢
- Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 1080m by August 31?<1¢
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Strong front-loaded theatrical run and limited time remaining position Spider-Man: Brand New Day well below the $900 million domestic threshold by August 31. Released July 31 with a record $360 million opening weekend, the Tom Holland-led Marvel film quickly reached $855 million domestically by its fourth weekend (Aug 21-23), when it earned $39 million amid typical steep drops of 45-60%. As of late August, daily earnings have slowed significantly in a competitive marketplace, leaving roughly one week before the cutoff. Trader consensus reflects this reality, with the sub-$900 million bracket commanding overwhelming implied probability at 85.5% while higher brackets sit near zero. The film’s legs and audience retention have been solid for a summer tentpole, yet its trajectory shows no sign of a late surge capable of closing the gap in such a short window.