- PSOEは2026年のスペイン総選挙でカタルーニャ州で最多議席を獲得しますか？92¢92%
- 2026年のスペイン総選挙でジュンツがカタルーニャで最も多くの議席を獲得しますか？4¢4%
- PPは2026年のスペイン総選挙でカタルーニャ州で最多議席を獲得しますか？4¢4%
- 2026年のスペイン総選挙で、カタルーニャでVoxが最多議席を獲得しますか？4¢4%
- 2026年のスペイン総選挙で、カタルーニャで最も多くの議席を獲得するのは広範戦線（FA）ですか？3¢3%
- 2026年スペイン総選挙でカタルーニャ州で最も多くの議席を獲得するのはERCですか？3¢3%
PSOE maintains a commanding lead in the Catalonia segment of the Spanish general election market, driven by its established regional support base, recent policy focus on autonomy measures, and coalition dynamics with moderate nationalist groups. Traders appear to price in the party's incumbency advantages and polling consistency across key voting blocs ahead of the next national vote. Lower probabilities for parties such as Junts, ERC, PP, and Vox reflect fragmented opposition and limited recent breakthroughs in the region. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include unexpected coalition realignments, turnout surges among nationalist voters, or major policy reversals on fiscal transfers before election day.
ルール
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain in the constituencies of Catalonia (Barcelona, Girona, Lleida, and Tarragona) as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won by their electoral lists (candidaturas) in these constituencies, attributed as set out below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by their lists in these constituencies, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).