- 2026年10月1日にホルムズ海峡で航行中の船舶が標的にされるか？87¢
- 2026年10月2日にホルムズ海峡で船舶が標的になるか？90¢
- 2026年10月3日にホルムズで船舶が標的となるか？73¢
- 2026年10月4日にホルムズ海峡で船舶が標的にされるか？95¢
- 2026年10月5日にホルムズで船舶が標的となるか？94¢
- 2026年10月6日にホルムズ海峡で船舶が標的にされるか？90¢
- 2026年10月7日にホルムズで船舶が標的にされるか？98¢
- 2026年10月8日にホルムズ海峡で船舶が標的にされるか？24¢
- 2026年10月11日にホルムズで船舶が標的にされるか？77¢
- 2026年10月12日にホルムズ海峡で船舶が標的になるか？68¢
- 2026年10月13日にホルムズで船舶が標的にされる？27¢
- 2026年10月14日にホルムズ海峡で船舶が標的となるか？50¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea. No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (UTC) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.