- OpenAIは2027年までにAGIを達成したと発表するでしょうか？9¢
Strong trader consensus behind the 91.5% market-implied probability for “No” stems from OpenAI’s lack of any formal announcement claiming AGI achievement, even after the September 2026 launch of GPT-6 Astra. Leadership rhetoric, including President Greg Brockman’s “Welcome to the AGI era” remarks and personal view that “we’re there,” stopped short of the company’s own definition of a system outperforming humans at most economically valuable work. CEO Sam Altman stated in August that OpenAI was “not quite yet” at AGI while projecting an internal system by year-end 2026. Independent evaluations, such as ARC-AGI-3 scores varying sharply by harness and expert skepticism from the ARC Prize Foundation, reinforce that current large language models and agentic capabilities have not crossed widely accepted AGI thresholds. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a surprise formal declaration tied to undisclosed internal progress or a new model release before December 31, 2026.
ルール
OpenAIまたは同社の公式代表者が2026年12月31日 ETまでに汎用人工知能（AGI）を開発したと発表した場合、この市場は「はい」として決済されます。それ以外の場合、この市場は「いいえ」で決着します。 この市場の主な決済情報源は、OpenAIおよび／またはその公式代表者からの公式情報となります。ただし、信頼できる報道の総意も考慮されます。
機械翻訳です。解釈に相違がある場合は原文が優先されます。