- 2026年に新たなパンデミック？2¢2%
Strong surveillance from the CDC and WHO shows respiratory illness activity, including COVID-19, remaining low nationally with declining cases and no novel pathogen achieving sustained global transmission as of early November 2026. Current variants such as XFG and BA.3.2 are classified as low-risk variants under monitoring, with vaccines retaining effectiveness against severe outcomes and outbreaks like Ebola in the DRC staying regionally contained rather than escalating to epidemic thresholds. This evidence underpins the 97.9% market-implied probability of no new pandemic, reflecting trader consensus on endemic patterns and historical rarity of rapid global spread. Realistic shifts could still arise from an immune-evasive strain emerging with high transmissibility or unexpected escalation of localized threats beyond containment before year-end.
ルール
世界保健機関（WHO）が2026年1月1日から2026年12月31日 23:59 ETまでの間に何らかの疾病をパンデミックと宣言した場合、この市場は「はい」で決着します。それ以外の場合、この市場は「いいえ」で決着します。 決着の根拠となる情報源は、世界保健機関の公式発表です。
機械翻訳です。解釈に相違がある場合は原文が優先されます。