- 2026年に新たなコロナウイルスのパンデミックは発生する？2¢2%
Strong market-implied odds favoring no new coronavirus pandemic in 2026 reflect ongoing global respiratory virus surveillance showing stable, low SARS-CoV-2 positivity rates without evidence of a novel strain capable of triggering a WHO-declared pandemic. Recent CDC and WHO updates indicate COVID-19 activity remains regionally elevated in places but declining nationally in the United States, with influenza and RSV levels following typical seasonal patterns and no surge meeting pandemic thresholds. Cumulative case data through mid-2026 and continued monitoring via systems like COVID-NET underscore that current circulation stems from established variants rather than a new emergence. Realistic challenges include the potential for a highly immune-evasive or virulent variant to arise and spread rapidly before year-end, though historical patterns and current low transmissibility signals make such an outcome unlikely within the remaining timeframe.
ルール
世界保健機関（WHO）が市場作成から2026年12月31日、23:59 ETまでの間に、COVID-19（SARS-CoV-2）以外の新たなCOVIDパンデミックを宣言した場合、この市場は「はい」で決着します。それ以外の場合、この市場は「いいえ」で決着します。 決着の根拠となる情報源は、世界保健機関の公式発表です。
機械翻訳です。解釈に相違がある場合は原文が優先されます。