- 2026年のミシガン州上院選で共和党は勝つでしょうか？41¢
- 2026年のミシガン州上院選挙で民主党は勝利するか？61¢
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Recent polling after the August 4 primaries shows the Michigan Senate race between Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican nominee Mike Rogers as a tossup, with surveys from late July through mid-August placing the candidates within a few points or showing El-Sayed ahead by single digits among likely voters. El-Sayed's primary victory over Haley Stevens consolidated Democratic support in the open-seat contest to replace retiring Senator Gary Peters, while Rogers advanced unopposed on the Republican side. Campaign dynamics center on economic issues, affordability, and candidate records, with El-Sayed pressing Rogers on debates and past corporate ties and Rogers highlighting his congressional experience. Trader consensus pricing these outcomes reflects the closely contested fundamentals and limited national tailwinds in a state with competitive partisan balance.