- 10年物米国債利回りは2027年までに4.8%に達するか？91¢
- 10年物国債利回りは2027年より前に5.2％に達するか？11¢
- 10年物米国債利回りは2027年までに5.7%に達しますか？5¢
- 10年物米国債利回りは2027年までに5.0％に到達しますか？36¢
- 10年国債利回りは2027年までに5.5％に達するでしょうか？10¢
- 10年物米国債利回りは2027年までに6.0%に達するか？5¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Recent upward pressure on 10-year Treasury yields, trading near 4.78% as of early September 2026 after climbing from sub-4.3% levels earlier in the year, stems primarily from resilient growth, inflation readings remaining above the Fed’s 2% target, and a hawkish FOMC shift under Chair Kevin Warsh. Heavy Treasury issuance amid elevated fiscal deficits has lifted term premia, while geopolitical tensions have kept energy prices volatile and supported higher real yields. Polymarket-implied probabilities price a near-certain breach of 4.8% before 2027 but only about 30% odds for 5.0%, reflecting trader consensus that supply dynamics and policy expectations outweigh cooling labor market signals. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, employment data, and the September FOMC meeting.