- Gemini 4.0は2026年9月30日までにリリースされますか？19¢
- 2026年8月31日までにGemini 4.0がリリースされますか？2¢
- Gemini 4.0は2026年9月15日までにリリースされますか？11¢
- Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?61¢
- Gemini 4.0は2026年11月30日までにリリースされますか？86¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Google confirmed in late July 2026 that it had begun pre-training Gemini 4, calling it the company’s most ambitious frontier run yet and describing the model as significantly larger than prior versions to advance capabilities in coding and agentic tasks. CEO Sundar Pichai highlighted internal progress during the Q2 earnings call while noting plans for faster iteration overall, though 3.5 Pro has faced delays into partner testing. No release date or benchmarks have been shared, but Google’s historical six-month training-to-launch cycles point to a likely November or December debut. Traders are monitoring API listings, future earnings commentary, and competitive releases from OpenAI and Anthropic as key signals that could shift timing expectations.