- 12月31日までに、どのAIモデルもChatbot Arenaスコアで少なくとも1550に到達しますか？14¢
- 12月31日までに、どのAIモデルもChatbot Arenaスコアが少なくとも1600に到達しますか？7¢
- 12月31日までに、いずれかのAIモデルがChatbot Arenaスコアで少なくとも1650に到達しますか？7¢
- 12月31日までに、どのAIモデルかがChatbot Arenaスコア1700以上に到達するでしょうか？3¢
- 12月31日までに、いずれかのAIモデルがChatbot Arenaスコア1530以上に到達しますか？50¢
- 12月31日までに、いずれかのAIモデルがChatbot Arenaで1520以上のスコアを達成するでしょうか？96¢
- 12月31日までに、いずれかのAIモデルがチャットボットアリーナスコアで少なくとも1540に到達しますか？32¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Recent model releases from Anthropic, Google, and Alibaba continue to drive gains on the LMSYS Arena leaderboard, where top overall Elo scores hover near 1505-1508 as of early September 2026. Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants lead the text arena, while fresh entries like Gemini 3.8 Flash (1494 pts) and Qwen3.8-Max-0902 demonstrate rapid iteration in coding and agentic tasks. Competitive pressure among frontier labs, including Meta's Muse Spark updates and open-weight challengers from Moonshot and Zhipu, fuels frequent capability jumps. With roughly four months remaining until year-end, further post-training refinements, larger context windows, and specialized variants could push scores higher, though historical patterns show incremental rather than explosive monthly gains. Traders should monitor upcoming developer conferences and lab announcements for catalysts that could shift the threshold.