- 2026年10月のアルゼンチンの月間インフレ率は1.2％以下になりますか？3¢
- 2026年10月のアルゼンチンの月間インフレ率は1.3%から1.5%の間になりますか？<1¢
- 2026年10月のアルゼンチンの月間インフレ率は1.6％から1.8％の間になりますか？28¢
- 2026年10月のアルゼンチンの月間インフレ率は1.9％から2.1％の間になりますか？54¢
- 2026年10月のアルゼンチンの月間インフレ率は2.2％から2.4％の間になりますか？11¢
- 2026年10月のアルゼンチンの月間インフレ率は2.5％から2.7％の間になりますか？4¢
- 2026年10月のアルゼンチンの月間インフレ率は2.8%から3.0%の間になりますか？9¢
- 2026年10月のアルゼンチンの月間インフレ率は少なくとも3.1％になりますか？<1¢
Recent September consumer price data from INDEC showed a 1.9% month-over-month rise, matching analyst consensus and marking the second consecutive sub-2% reading, with core inflation easing to 1.7%. This outcome, driven by utility and education tariff adjustments alongside seasonal food pressures, supports market-implied odds favoring the 1.9-2.1% band for October at 51.5%. The BCRA’s latest Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado survey points to a median near 1.7% for the month, consistent with the 31% priced for 1.6-1.8%, as fiscal austerity, tight monetary conditions, and peso stability continue to anchor the disinflation path toward an expected 30% annual rate by year-end. October’s release, due mid-November, will test whether the recent moderation persists amid regulated price resets.
ルール
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina. This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in Argentina's Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in October 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC Consumer Price Index report for the specified month. The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for October 2026, currently scheduled to be released on November 12, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://www.indec.gob.ar/indec/web/Nivel4-Tema-3-5-31. The relevant figure is the one listed in the report under "Variación % mensual Total nacional". Note: This market's resolution source reports the monthly percentage change in the Argentine Consumer Price Index to one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.indec.gob.ar/indec/web/Calendario-Fecha-0