- L'indice UMich del sentiment dei consumatori sarà sotto 40,0 a novembre?5¢5%
- L'indice di fiducia dei consumatori UMich sarà compreso tra 40,0 e 42,9 a novembre?4¢4%
- L'indice di fiducia dei consumatori UMich sarà compreso tra 43,0 e 45,9 a novembre?27¢27%
- L'indice di fiducia dei consumatori UMich sarà compreso tra 46,0 e 48,9 a novembre?40¢40%
- L'indice di fiducia dei consumatori UMich sarà compreso tra 49,0 e 51,9 a novembre?20¢20%
- L'indice UMich del sentiment dei consumatori sarà compreso tra 52,0 e 54,9 a novembre?6¢6%
- L'indice UMich del sentiment dei consumatori sarà almeno 55,0 a novembre?1¢1%
Recent October University of Michigan consumer sentiment finalized at 48.0, holding near September’s 48.1 and marking the second-lowest reading on record after May’s 44.8 low. Persistent inflation pressures tied to the Iran conflict, which began in late February 2026, continue to weigh on sentiment, with one-year inflation expectations rising to 4.7% and long-run expectations at 3.5%—both the highest since May. Current conditions deteriorated sharply to 46.7 on weaker durable-goods affordability amid higher interest rates, while expectations improved modestly. These factors anchor trader consensus around the 46.0–48.9 range ahead of the preliminary November release expected November 6.
Regole
This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for November 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for November 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release. The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for November 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on November 20, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered. Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.