- Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?100¢100%
- Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?0¢0%
- Will Moderate Party (M) win less than 16% of all valid votes?0¢0%
- Will Moderate Party (M) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?0¢0%
The Moderates secured a vote share of approximately 19.85% in the September 13 Swedish parliamentary election, aligning closely with pre-election polling averages that placed the party between 16% and 20% in the final months. This positioning reflects the party's status as the leading force in the outgoing Tidö bloc, its gains relative to 2022 amid shifts among coalition partners, and consistent survey trends from institutes such as Novus and Indikator Opinion showing stability near the upper end of the 18-20% band. Trader consensus at 99.7% for that interval draws from these verified results and the narrow overall bloc margins. Final tallies from remaining postal and overseas ballots could produce minor revisions, though historical patterns indicate such adjustments rarely exceed 0.5 percentage points.
Regole
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Moderate Party (M) in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).