- Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?1¢
- Will the Centre Party (C) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will the Green Party (MP) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will the Liberals (L) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?22¢
- Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?75¢
- Will the Left Party (V) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election has entered its final stretch with Social Democrats holding a narrow bloc lead in recent Novus polling. Sweden Democrats remain positioned as the clear second-place contender at roughly 20-21 percent support, ahead of Moderates near 17 percent, reflecting their consistent polling strength since the 2022 vote and role as the largest party within the governing Tidö bloc. The race has tightened sharply in the past two weeks as the opposition lead narrowed to 2.6 points, yet this shift has not altered the established party ordering. Traders price Sweden Democrats at 75 percent implied probability for second place because historical trends and current surveys show limited scenarios in which Moderates overtake them before election day.