- Il traffico nello Stretto di Hormuz tornerà alla normalità entro il 30 settembre?6¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Ongoing Iran-U.S. tensions and associated security risks remain the dominant driver behind the 94.5% market-implied odds against Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by September 30. As of late August 2026, AIS-tracked commercial transits sit roughly 90% below pre-conflict baselines, with war-risk insurance premiums elevated approximately 40 times normal levels and single-digit daily vessel counts common amid ongoing blockades, projectile incidents, and Iranian enforcement of controlled routes. These conditions sustain elevated energy shipping costs and constrain oil throughput through the critical chokepoint. A rapid diplomatic breakthrough or comprehensive ceasefire could still reopen viable commercial lanes before the deadline, though entrenched kinetic activity and high-risk premiums make near-term normalization improbable.