- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?<1¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 15, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 99.5% implied probability because commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted at roughly 4–6% of pre-crisis volumes (about 4 daily transits versus a historical 70–80+), with ongoing Iranian attacks on tankers, naval mine hazards, and IRGC enforcement actions as of early September 2026. Persistent U.S.-Iran tensions, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and the absence of cleared transit lanes or sustained de-escalation have kept operators sidelined since the February 2026 disruption began. Recent projectile strikes and enforcement activity in late August and early September have reinforced caution, preventing any meaningful recovery toward normal flows. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift odds include a rapid diplomatic breakthrough clearing routes or halting hostilities before September 15, though such developments appear improbable given the latest incidents and lack of resolution momentum.