- Elezioni parlamentari in Sassonia-Anhalt: CDU sopra/sotto il 23%?44¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Recent opinion polls for the 6 September 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election place the CDU at 22–23 percent. The latest surveys from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (3 September) and INSA (early September) show 23 percent and 22 percent respectively, while Infratest dimap recorded 22 percent in late August. These figures reflect a stable decline from the party’s 37.1 percent result in 2021 amid AfD gains to around 41–43 percent. The narrow clustering around the 23 percent threshold, combined with limited remaining campaign time and no major late shifts reported, underpins trader consensus favoring the under outcome at the current implied probability.