- OpenAI annuncerà di aver raggiunto l’AGI prima del 2027?9¢
Strong trader consensus behind the 91.5% market-implied probability for “No” stems from OpenAI’s lack of any formal announcement claiming AGI achievement, even after the September 2026 launch of GPT-6 Astra. Leadership rhetoric, including President Greg Brockman’s “Welcome to the AGI era” remarks and personal view that “we’re there,” stopped short of the company’s own definition of a system outperforming humans at most economically valuable work. CEO Sam Altman stated in August that OpenAI was “not quite yet” at AGI while projecting an internal system by year-end 2026. Independent evaluations, such as ARC-AGI-3 scores varying sharply by harness and expert skepticism from the ARC Prize Foundation, reinforce that current large language models and agentic capabilities have not crossed widely accepted AGI thresholds. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a surprise formal declaration tied to undisclosed internal progress or a new model release before December 31, 2026.
Regole
Questo mercato si risolverà in «Sì» se OpenAI o un rappresentante ufficiale dell'azienda annuncia di aver creato un'intelligenza artificiale generale (AGI) entro 31 dicembre 2026 ET. Altrimenti, questo mercato si risolverà su «No». La fonte primaria per la risoluzione di questo mercato sarà costituita dalle informazioni ufficiali di OpenAI e/o del suo rappresentante ufficiale; tuttavia, si terrà conto anche del consenso delle notizie provenienti da fonti attendibili.
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