Un valore esattamente sul limite conta nella fascia superiore · Regole
- La CDU otterrà meno dell'8% di tutti i voti validi di lista?100¢100%
- La CDU otterrà tra l'8% e l'11% di tutti i voti validi di seconda preferenza?0¢0%
- La CDU otterrà tra l'11% e il 14% di tutti i voti validi di lista?0¢0%
- La CDU otterrà almeno il 14% di tutti i voti validi di lista?0¢0%
The Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election on September 20, 2026, delivered confirmed preliminary results placing the CDU at 4.9% of the vote, well below the 5% threshold for Landtag entry. This outcome reflects long-term erosion of CDU support in the eastern state, accelerated by national trends under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, strong AfD gains to 38.2%, and SPD consolidation at 35.5%. Pre-election polls had already shown the CDU stuck between 6-10%, squeezed in a polarized contest between the two larger parties. Official final tallies or minor adjustments to Zweitstimmen counts remain the only factors that could alter the precise figure, though any shift above 8% appears structurally implausible given the verified tallies.
Regole
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).