- Ra'am vincerà meno di 4 seggi nelle elezioni della Knesset del 2026?7¢
- Ra'am vincerà esattamente 4 seggi alle elezioni della Knesset del 2026?41¢
- Ra'am vincerà esattamente 5 seggi alle elezioni della Knesset del 2026?38¢
- Ra'am vincerà esattamente 6 seggi alle elezioni della Knesset del 2026?27¢
- Ra'am vincerà esattamente 7 seggi nelle elezioni della Knesset del 2026?<1¢
- Ra'am otterrà 8 o più seggi alle elezioni della Knesset del 2026?<1¢
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Ra'am's independent campaign ahead of Israel's October 27 Knesset election, including the addition of Jewish former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz to its slate, has positioned the party as a potential pragmatic partner for opposition efforts to form a government without Netanyahu. Recent polls show the United Arab List hovering between four and five seats amid competition from the separate Joint List and broader Arab voter fragmentation. This tight trader consensus around four or five seats reflects ongoing uncertainty over turnout in Arab communities, the impact of Ra'am's civic pivot away from its Islamic Movement roots, and whether Segalovitz's inclusion can expand the party's appeal enough to secure an extra mandate. Scheduled events like the September 8 candidate list deadline and final campaign weeks could still shift these narrow probabilities.