SpaceX has completed roughly 120 orbital launches through mid-October 2026, driven primarily by a sustained Falcon 9 cadence of Starlink deployments alongside crew, cargo, and national security missions from Florida and California pads. This operational tempo, supported by rapid booster reuse and multiple active pads, positions the 140-159 range as the market consensus. Starship test flights remain limited, with only a handful expected by year-end as the vehicle transitions between blocks. Upcoming milestones include continued Starlink batches and potential Starship Flights 15-16, though regulatory reviews for higher Starship rates will not materially affect 2026 totals. Trader sentiment reflects the proven Falcon reliability and historical launch patterns rather than speculative Starship scaling.
Questo mercato sarà risolto in base al numero di lanci di SpaceX tra 1 gennaio 2026, 0:00 ET e 31 dicembre 2026, 23:59 ET. Se il totale dei lanci di SpaceX riportato ricade esattamente tra due fasce, questo mercato sarà risolto in base alla fascia più alta. La fonte per la risoluzione di questo mercato sarà https://www.spacex.com/launches.
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