- Il rendimento del Treasury a 10 anni scenderà sotto il 4,76% a settembre?0¢0%
- Il rendimento dei Treasury a 10 anni scenderà sotto il 4,73% a settembre?0¢0%
- Il rendimento del Treasury a 10 anni scenderà sotto il 4,61% a settembre?0¢0%
- Il rendimento del Treasury a 10 anni scenderà sotto il 4,67% a settembre?0¢0%
- Il rendimento del Treasury a 10 anni scenderà sotto il 4,56% a settembre?0¢0%
- Il rendimento del Treasury a 10 anni scenderà sotto il 4,70% a settembre?0¢0%
- Il rendimento del Treasury a 10 anni scenderà sotto il 4,64% a settembre?0¢0%
- Il rendimento del Treasury a 10 anni scenderà sotto il 4,45% a settembre?0¢0%
- Il rendimento del Treasury a 10 anni scenderà sotto il 4,51% a settembre?0¢0%
Recent surges in the 10-year Treasury yield to levels above 5% in September 2026 reflect sticky inflation pressures, rising oil prices, and resilient U.S. economic growth that have prompted traders to reassess the Federal Reserve's rate path. Higher real-rate expectations and an elevated term premium have pushed yields upward despite prior easing signals, with market-implied odds now pricing in a greater chance of at least one 25-basis-point rate hike at the October FOMC meeting. Key upcoming catalysts include fresh CPI and employment data releases, which could further influence Treasury pricing and volatility measures. These dynamics underscore how fiscal expansion and commodity-driven inflation are currently outweighing any near-term dovish sentiment in shaping yield levels.
Regole
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).