- La temperatura massima a Taipei sarà di 23°C o inferiore il 14 ottobre?<1¢
- La temperatura massima a Taipei sarà di 24°C il 14 ottobre?<1¢
- La temperatura massima a Taipei sarà di 25°C il 14 ottobre?<1¢
- La temperatura massima a Taipei sarà di 26°C il 14 ottobre?<1¢
- La temperatura massima a Taipei sarà di 27°C il 14 ottobre?<1¢
- La temperatura massima a Taipei sarà di 28°C il 14 ottobre?<1¢
- La temperatura massima a Taipei sarà di 29°C il 14 ottobre?<1¢
- La temperatura massima a Taipei sarà di 30°C il 14 ottobre?>99¢
- La temperatura massima a Taipei sarà di 31°C il 14 ottobre?<1¢
- La temperatura massima a Taipei sarà di 32°C il 14 ottobre?<1¢
- La temperatura massima a Taipei sarà di 33°C o superiore il 14 ottobre?<1¢
Trader consensus strongly favors a daily maximum of 30°C in Taipei on October 14, 2026, reflecting the latest Central Weather Administration (CWA) observations and short-range model guidance showing afternoon temperatures climbing to that level under mostly cloudy to partly sunny conditions with easterly flow. Recent surface readings and ensemble forecasts from agencies like the CWA indicate the peak occurred in the early afternoon, consistent with seasonal norms for mid-October when daytime highs typically range 27–30°C before cooler northeasterly influences strengthen later in the month. Market-implied odds above 99% capture this tight clustering of verified data around the 30°C threshold, with minimal dispersion across reporting stations. A realistic challenge would require post-event quality control to revise the official maximum downward below the bin or if a secondary station records a notably lower peak; otherwise, resolution appears straightforward given the proximity to market close.
Regole
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.