This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance for September 8 points to a mainly fine day with light winds and a forecast high of 33°C, aligning with the market's leading 40.5% implied probability for that exact outcome. Weak pressure gradients over Guangdong are expected to limit mixing and allow strong solar insolation during peak afternoon hours, while elevated soil and sea-surface temperatures near 29–30°C provide additional heat input. Recent model consensus shows limited spread around the 32–34°C range, with the northeast monsoon arrival not yet influencing local steering patterns or cloud cover tomorrow. Traders appear to weigh the official 27–33°C range and very hot daytime conditions most heavily, though slight revisions in afternoon cloud development or wind shifts could still nudge the verified maximum toward 32°C or 34°C.