- Flávio Bolsonaro vincerà il primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026 con meno del 5% di vantaggio?100¢100%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vincerà il primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026 con un vantaggio del 5–10%?0¢0%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vincerà il primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026 con meno del 5%?0¢0%
- Renan Santos vincerà il primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?0¢0%
- Flávio Bolsonaro vincerà il primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026 con un vantaggio del 5-10%?0¢0%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vincerà il primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026 con un margine del 10–15%?0¢0%
- Flávio Bolsonaro vincerà il primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026 con almeno il 10% di vantaggio?0¢0%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vincerà il primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026 con almeno il 15% di vantaggio?0¢0%
- Un'altra persona vincerà il primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?0¢0%
- Tarcisio de Freitas vincerà il primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?0¢0%
- Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior vincerà il primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali brasiliane del 2026?0¢0%
Flávio Bolsonaro secured a narrow first-round lead over incumbent President Lula on October 4, finishing at roughly 47% of valid votes to Lula’s 45% and advancing both candidates to an October 25 runoff. Pre-election polling aggregates had shown a statistical tie or small Lula edge in the opening round, with neither candidate approaching the 50% threshold needed to win outright. Traders priced the margin below 5% at essentially 100% because the final certified gap settled near two points amid high polarization, consolidated conservative support behind the Liberal Party candidate, and limited third-party vote splitting. A recount, late shifts in blank or null ballots, or court rulings on valid-vote calculations remain the only realistic paths to altering that narrow band.
Regole
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).