- Will Grüne win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?100¢100%
- Will Grüne win 35-39 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?0¢0%
- Will Grüne win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?0¢0%
- Will Grüne win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?0¢0%
- Will Grüne win 40-44 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?0¢0%
- Will Grüne win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?0¢0%
- Will Grüne win 45 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?0¢0%
The Berlin state election on September 20 produced confirmed results placing the Grüne at 14.3 percent of the vote and 26 seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus. This outcome aligns directly with the market’s heavy weighting on the 25-29 seat band, reflecting the translation of second-round vote shares into proportional mandates under Berlin’s electoral rules. Die Linke led with 25.7 percent and 47 seats, followed by the CDU at 18.8 percent and 34 seats, while the AfD reached 16.3 percent and 29 seats; the SPD fell to 12.1 percent and 22 seats. The Grüne lost ground relative to 2023 but cleared the threshold comfortably and secured a position that supports their inclusion in potential three-party coalitions. With final tallies published and turnout at 74.2 percent, the narrow range of remaining uncertainty centers on any minor procedural adjustments or overhang-seat calculations rather than shifts in underlying support.
Regole
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Grüne party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election. This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system. If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).