- Will CDU win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?100¢100%
- Will CDU win 45 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?0¢0%
- Will CDU win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?0¢0%
- Will CDU win 35-39 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?0¢0%
- Will CDU win 40-44 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?0¢0%
- Will CDU win fewer than 25 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?0¢0%
The September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election delivered CDU results of roughly 18.8 percent of the vote, translating to 33–34 seats under the personalized proportional system with overhang and leveling mandates. Pre-election polling had shown the party slipping from its 2023 performance amid gains for Die Linke and a fragmented field, with the final tally aligning closely to late surveys projecting the CDU in the low-to-mid 30s. Trader consensus at 99.9 percent for the 30–34 seat band reflects the completed vote count and limited scope for procedural adjustments. Shifts into the 35–39 range would require substantial revisions to certified totals or unexpected changes in seat allocation formulas, neither of which appears probable based on official tallies released through mid-October.
Regole
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the CDU party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election. This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system. If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).