- L'SPD otterrà meno del 10% di tutti i voti validi di lista?12¢
- L'SPD otterrà tra il 10% e il 13% di tutti i voti validi di seconda preferenza?51¢
- L'SPD otterrà tra il 13% e il 16% di tutti i voti validi di seconda preferenza?33¢
- L'SPD otterrà almeno il 16% di tutti i voti validi per il secondo scrutinio?8¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Recent polls for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election place the SPD at 11–15 percent, reflecting its position as the weaker partner in the incumbent CDU–SPD coalition. The party’s support has declined from 18.4 percent in the 2023 repeat vote amid gains by the Linke, AfD, and Greens. Current surveys from Infratest dimap, INSA, and Forsa show the SPD fifth among major parties, consistent with limited momentum for candidate Steffen Krach. Traders have priced the 10–13 percent band highest, aligning with these figures and the absence of major late shifts that would push the result outside that interval.