- Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?<1¢
- Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?<1¢
- No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?74¢
- Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?23¢
- Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?1¢
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Recent UK inflation data, rising to 2.9% in July from 2.6% in June amid higher energy costs from Middle East developments, alongside the Bank of England's July hold at 3.75% (6-3 vote with three members favoring a 25 basis point hike), underpin the 74% implied probability of no change at the November MPC meeting. Cooling labor market conditions and limited evidence of second-round wage-price effects have contained broader pressures, supporting the market-implied odds for a steady Bank Rate despite the projected CPI peak near 3.2% in Q4. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, reflects caution ahead of September and November data releases that could shift the rate path.