- Apakah Spider-Man: Brand New Day akan mencapai $1 M di box office domestik pada 2026?10¢10%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day, the fourth Tom Holland-led MCU Spider-Man film directed by Destin Daniel Cretton, opened to a record $360 million domestic in late July 2026 and quickly became the highest-grossing domestic release ever, surpassing Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ $936.6 million mark en route to roughly $958 million as of mid-October. Its theatrical run is now winding down after digital release in early October, with recent weekends contributing only $700k–$1.5 million amid typical late-run drop-offs and screen reductions. Industry tracking and final estimates point to a domestic finish around $960 million—strong enough for multiple records but short of the $1 billion threshold. This performance trajectory, combined with the film’s already-completed theatrical window and limited remaining earnings before year-end, underpins the 77% market-implied probability for “No.” Key swing factors like further re-releases or holdover play appear unlikely given current momentum and competition.
Aturan
Pasar ini akan diselesaikan sebagai "Ya" jika pendapatan box office domestik resmi "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" melampaui $1.000.000.000 (satu miliar dolar) paling lambat pada 31 Desember 2026, 23.59 ET. Jika tidak, pasar ini akan diselesaikan dengan hasil "Tidak". Angka "Daily Box Office Performance" yang terdapat di tab "Box Office" pada halaman film ini di The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) akan digunakan untuk menyelesaikan pasar ini setelah nilai hingga tanggal yang ditentukan sudah final (yaitu bukan lagi perkiraan studio). Jika ada ketidakjelasan mengenai apakah angka dari sumber penentuan sudah final, pasar ini akan tetap terbuka sampai https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ dan https://www.the-numbers.com/ sama-sama mengonfirmasi angka final mereka.
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