- Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be negative?18¢
- Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0% and 0.1%?20¢
- Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?26¢
- Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?23¢
- Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?8¢
- Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 0.9%?1¢
- Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.0%?6¢
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Recent UK GDP data and Bank of England projections point to modest Q3 2026 quarter-on-quarter growth amid offsetting forces. Official figures showed 0.4% expansion in Q2 following 0.6% in Q1, yet BoE staff estimate underlying momentum at just 0.1% and project headline growth near 0% for Q3 as higher energy prices from Middle East developments erode household real incomes and dampen demand. Independent forecasts cluster around 0.1–0.2%, while August PMI readings at 52.5 and resilient household spending have lifted some projections toward 0.2%, keeping the 0.0–0.5% band tightly contested. Persistent inflation risks above 3% later in 2026 and a softening labor market with unemployment at 4.9% add further uncertainty ahead of the first Q3 estimate.