- Akankah roket Neutron milik Rocket Lab diluncurkan paling lambat pada 31 Desember?4¢4%
Rocket Lab's official October 14 announcement that Neutron's first flight has shifted to 2027, driven by manufacturing voids in the carbon-composite forward dome of the first-stage propellant tank, underpins the 98% market-implied probability against a 2026 launch. The company had aimed for Q4 2026 pad delivery or flight, but the defect—identified during automated fiber placement and inspections—requires a new dome build, curing, verification, stage assembly, and full hydrostatic plus cryogenic testing campaigns that extend into Q1 2027 before any new target date is set. Prior delays from tank ruptures and process changes have already consumed the remaining calendar window, with CEO Peter Beck emphasizing caution over rushed timelines. While unforeseen acceleration of parallel builds or regulatory fast-tracking could theoretically compress schedules, the explicit company statement and multi-quarter test sequence make a December 31 liftoff highly improbable.
Aturan
Jika roket Neutron milik Rocket Lab berhasil diluncurkan dari landasan peluncurannya paling lambat 31 Desember 2026, 23.59 ET, pasar ini akan diselesaikan dengan hasil "Ya". Jika tidak, pasar ini akan ditetapkan ke "Tidak". Hasil peluncuran apa pun akan dikonfirmasi dengan memeriksa video resmi yang disediakan oleh Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), serta rekaman video sekunder dan/atau laporan tertulis jika diperlukan. Anomali apa pun setelah lepas landas awal (misalnya ledakan atau kegagalan pendakian) tidak akan memengaruhi hasil. Perubahan nama atau rebranding apa pun pada wahana Neutron tidak akan memengaruhi penyelesaian pasar.
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