- Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?73¢
- Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?49¢
- Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?27¢
- Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?14¢
- Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520?6¢
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI “Astra” model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions), or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked “AutoEval” will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the “AutoEval” label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
OpenAI launched GPT-6 Astra (also branded Astra) on September 3, 2026, as its latest frontier large language model with state-of-the-art claims in computer use, software engineering, cybersecurity, and math benchmarks like FrontierMath Tier 4 and ARC-AGI-3. The model is rolling out in stages—starting with select organizations and Daybreak testers before broader ChatGPT Plus/Pro/Enterprise and API access—following safety delays tied to its “Critical” cybersecurity designation under OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework. Trader sentiment on the Polymarket market heavily favors “No” (roughly 81% implied probability) because recent OpenAI releases, such as GPT-5.4-high, entered the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard tied or outside the top 10 rather than claiming the #1 spot immediately. Strong competition from models by Anthropic and Google, combined with the gradual availability that delays comprehensive evaluation, creates significant uncertainty around an instant debut at the top rank. The market resolves based on the model’s position the day after it first appears on the leaderboard.