- Apakah OpenAI akan mengumumkan bahwa mereka telah mencapai AGI sebelum 2027?9¢
Strong trader consensus behind the 91.5% market-implied probability for “No” stems from OpenAI’s lack of any formal announcement claiming AGI achievement, even after the September 2026 launch of GPT-6 Astra. Leadership rhetoric, including President Greg Brockman’s “Welcome to the AGI era” remarks and personal view that “we’re there,” stopped short of the company’s own definition of a system outperforming humans at most economically valuable work. CEO Sam Altman stated in August that OpenAI was “not quite yet” at AGI while projecting an internal system by year-end 2026. Independent evaluations, such as ARC-AGI-3 scores varying sharply by harness and expert skepticism from the ARC Prize Foundation, reinforce that current large language models and agentic capabilities have not crossed widely accepted AGI thresholds. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a surprise formal declaration tied to undisclosed internal progress or a new model release before December 31, 2026.
Aturan
Pasar ini akan diselesaikan sebagai "Ya" jika OpenAI atau perwakilan resmi perusahaan mengumumkan bahwa mereka telah menciptakan kecerdasan umum buatan (AGI) paling lambat 31 Desember 2026 ET. Jika tidak, pasar ini akan diselesaikan dengan hasil “Tidak”. Sumber utama untuk penyelesaian pasar ini adalah informasi resmi dari OpenAI dan/atau perwakilan resminya; namun, konsensus dari pemberitaan yang kredibel juga akan digunakan.
Terjemahan mesin. Jika ada perselisihan, teks asli yang berlaku.