- Jika Nothing terjadi suatu saat: November88¢88%
Trader consensus assigns an 88.5% implied probability to "Nothing" because no major diplomatic breakthroughs, military escalations, or leadership transitions have materialized or appear imminent within the November resolution window. Ongoing conflicts show no verified ceasefire agreements or new invasions, while scheduled U.S. midterm elections on November 3 involve standard congressional and gubernatorial contests without triggering defined resolution criteria such as regime changes or nuclear events. Recent polling trends and campaign activity remain consistent with historical midterm patterns, offering no evidence of sudden shifts that would alter the low probability of the specified high-impact outcomes. Traders weigh the absence of fresh catalysts against the potential for late-breaking developments, yet current evidence supports the elevated likelihood of no qualifying events.
Aturan
Pasar ini akan diselesaikan sebagai "Something" jika salah satu kondisi berikut terpenuhi antara 1 November 2026, 0.00 ET dan 30 November 2026, 23.59 ET: - Minyak mentah WTI (WTI) mencapai ↑ $150 - Bitcoin mencapai rekor tertinggi sepanjang masa - Pemimpin G7 mana pun mundur dari jabatannya (Carney, Macron, Merz, Meloni, Takaichi, Burnham, Trump) - Kesepakatan nuklir final AS-Iran - Gencatan senjata Rusia-Ukraina - Putin tidak lagi menjabat sebagai Presiden Rusia - Zelenskyy tidak lagi menjabat sebagai Presiden Ukraina - Selat Bab el-Mandeb secara efektif ditutup - Lalu lintas di Selat Hormuz kembali normal Jika tidak, pasar ini akan diselesaikan sebagai "Nothing". Aturan lengkap untuk pasar ini dapat ditemukan di sini: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/November_NEH.pdf
Terjemahan mesin. Jika ada perselisihan, teks asli yang berlaku.