- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or below on September 7?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on September 7?6¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on September 7?13¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on September 7?21¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 7?38¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 7?25¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 7?5¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on September 7?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Persistent heavy rain and thunderstorms forecast for Tokyo on September 7, driven by a moist southerly flow and low-pressure influences, are anchoring trader sentiment around a 23°C minimum. Official and ensemble model guidance shows overnight lows stabilizing near 23–24°C under thick cloud cover that limits radiational cooling, with early-morning readings holding in the low-20s Celsius amid widespread precipitation. This setup aligns closely with the market’s leading 23°C (37%) and 24°C (23%) outcomes while keeping 22°C (20.5%) viable if any clearing develops late in the period. Historical September climatology for Tokyo supports typical overnight minima near 22–24°C under similar disturbed conditions, and the absence of a strong cold-air intrusion or clear-sky window reduces the probability of deeper cooling below 22°C. Updated model runs through the evening of September 6 will provide the final refinement before resolution.