- Akankah Jerome Powell dipenjara sebelum 2027?1¢1%
The overwhelming 97.8% market-implied probability that Jerome Powell will not be jailed before 2027 reflects the complete absence of any criminal indictments, regulatory enforcement actions, or credible investigations targeting the Federal Reserve Chair. As a Senate-confirmed public official overseeing monetary policy, Powell faces no documented legal exposure that would meet the high evidentiary bar for incarceration, consistent with historical precedent for Fed leadership. Traders price this outcome as near-certain given the institutional safeguards and lack of recent developments suggesting otherwise. Tail-risk scenarios remain limited to extreme, low-probability events such as politically motivated charges in a highly polarized environment or unforeseen personal misconduct emerging in the final months of his term, though neither has materialized in official filings or credible reporting.
Aturan
Pasar ini akan diselesaikan sebagai "Ya" jika Jerome Powell menjalani hukuman di penjara federal, negara bagian, atau lokal di AS kapan saja antara pembuatan pasar dan 31 Desember 2026, 23.59 ET. Jika tidak, pasar ini akan diselesaikan dengan hasil "Tidak". Sumber utama untuk penyelesaian pasar ini adalah informasi resmi dari Pemerintah AS, tetapi konsensus dari pelaporan tepercaya juga dapat digunakan.
Terjemahan mesin. Jika ada perselisihan, teks asli yang berlaku.