- Apakah parlemen Jepang akan dibubarkan pada 2026?9¢9%
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party-led coalition secured a fresh mandate in the February 2026 Lower House election following the January dissolution, leaving the current four-year term with more than three years remaining as of mid-October. With a working majority intact and no no-confidence motion pending, the ruling bloc faces little institutional pressure to seek another early vote before year-end. Recent cabinet turbulence, including the agriculture minister’s resignation, has trimmed approval ratings to the low-to-mid 50s but not triggered the kind of acute crisis that historically prompts dissolution. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability against a 2026 dissolution, viewing it as inconsistent with standard Japanese parliamentary practice unless unforeseen events such as coalition fracture or a sharp economic downturn materialize in the final weeks of the year.
Aturan
Pasar ini akan diselesaikan sebagai "Ya" jika Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat Jepang yang sedang menjabat dibubarkan paling lambat 31 Desember 2026, 23.59 ET. Jika tidak, pasar ini akan diselesaikan dengan hasil "Tidak". Sumber utama untuk penyelesaian pasar ini adalah informasi resmi dari pemerintah Jepang, tetapi konsensus dari pemberitaan tepercaya juga akan digunakan.
Terjemahan mesin. Jika ada perselisihan, teks asli yang berlaku.