- Israel closes its airspace by August 31?2¢
- Israel closes its airspace by September 30?8¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Israel’s airspace has remained open for commercial operations since reopening in July 2026 following repeated temporary closures during the earlier US-Israel-Iran conflict and Iranian retaliatory strikes. Recent developments include a breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire with renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz, EASA advisories on regional risks, and persistent volatility that has kept some airlines from resuming full schedules. Trader consensus prices near-term closure probabilities low because no major escalation has forced broad suspension in the past month, though diplomatic signals, missile threats, or further strikes could quickly alter that assessment ahead of scheduled resolution dates.