- Akankah Iran memiliki senjata nuklir sebelum 2027?3¢3%
Recent US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged or destroyed Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, with IAEA reporting no visible reconstruction efforts at those sites through late October 2026. Inspectors have lacked access since June 2025, leaving the status of roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium unverified amid ongoing diplomatic efforts and an IAEA referral to the UN Security Council. These developments, combined with Iran's suspension of safeguards cooperation and internal debates over NPT obligations, underpin trader consensus that weaponization timelines remain extended well beyond 2026. Remaining risks include undetected activity at undeclared locations or accelerated post-conflict decisions to enrich existing stocks further.
Aturan
Pasar ini akan diselesaikan sebagai "Ya" jika laporan kredibel dari badan nuklir internasional, pemerintah Iran sendiri, atau sumber berita global tepercaya secara resmi mengonfirmasi bahwa Iran memiliki senjata nuklir paling lambat pada 31 Desember 2026, 23.59 ET. Jika tidak, pasar ini akan diselesaikan dengan hasil "Tidak".
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