- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?14¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran’s position on uranium enrichment remains unchanged despite the June 2026 Islamabad MOU with the United States. That interim accord reaffirmed Tehran’s NPT commitment not to seek nuclear weapons and called for IAEA-supervised down-blending of its highly enriched stockpile, while deferring limits on future enrichment to a final deal within 60 days. The deadline passed without agreement, the MOU expired amid renewed tensions, and Iranian officials—including President Pezeshkian—have repeatedly stated that enrichment is a non-negotiable sovereign right for peaceful purposes. IAEA reports confirm no verified resumption of enrichment at damaged sites, yet access disputes persist and Iran continues to reject zero-enrichment demands. These developments, combined with stalled negotiations and historical insistence on retaining enrichment capacity, underpin traders’ strong consensus against any formal agreement to end enrichment by December 31.