- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on September 4?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 4?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 4?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on September 4?39¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on September 4?50¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on September 4?7¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current numerical weather models from sources like MetService and international ensembles indicate a maximum temperature in Wellington on September 4 most likely between 17–18°C, driven by northwesterly winds advecting milder air ahead of a front, combined with spring seasonal warming that has lifted recent daily highs above the long-term September average of roughly 14–15°C. Variable cloud cover, scattered showers (with 70–80% probability in some runs), and gusty winds introduce uncertainty in the precise peak, keeping 17°C and 18°C outcomes closely matched in trader consensus. Updated model guidance and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.