- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on September 5?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on September 5?22¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on September 5?18¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on September 5?62¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C or higher on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C or below on September 5?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current forecast models from sources like GFS and Polish meteorological services point to a daily maximum near 21°C in Warsaw on September 5, 2026, aligning with the market's strong 61.5% implied probability for that outcome. Westerly winds of 15–30 km/h, combined with periods of light rain or scattered showers and partial cloud cover, are limiting daytime heating and preventing temperatures from climbing much higher. Early observations show overnight lows in the mid-to-upper teens °C, with midday readings climbing toward 20–22°C before cooling again by evening. This pattern matches climatological September norms for the region, where average highs hover around 20–22°C absent strong high-pressure ridges or southerly flow. Model consensus shows limited spread, with few runs supporting 23°C or above, which explains the steep drop in probabilities beyond 22°C. Updated afternoon observations and any final model runs before evening will provide the last inputs before market resolution.