- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 9?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 9?50¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 9?39¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 9?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on September 9?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models position a daily high of 28–29°C as the most likely outcome for Shanghai on September 9, driving the combined 89% market-implied probability. Northerly winds and increasing cloud cover are limiting daytime heating as the region transitions from late-summer conditions, with official guidance showing highs near 28°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies and minimal precipitation risk. Historical September averages hover around 27–28°C, providing climatological context for the tight clustering of trader expectations. Short-term model updates and any last-minute shifts in wind or cloud fields remain the key variables that could nudge the final recorded maximum before resolution.