- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or below on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 7?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on September 7?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 7?52¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on September 7?33¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on September 7?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C or higher on September 7?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent Met Office forecasts and ensemble model runs indicate a daytime maximum of 24–25°C for London on September 7 under mostly cloudy skies with moderate westerly winds. This positions trader-implied probabilities nearly evenly between those two outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in the precise peak amid variable cloud thickness and limited daytime heating. Westerly flow from the Atlantic maintains mild conditions without the strong southerly advection or clear skies needed for higher readings, while historical September baselines for the region average near 19–21°C. Key resolution factors include official Met Office maximum temperature observations at Heathrow and other London stations, with final model updates overnight likely tightening the range before markets close.